Notre Dame Continues To Hold On To A Playoff Spot — But


Florida 9-1881435%23% ▲ 214% Oregon 7-32310284%<1% ▲ 21<1% TeamCFPEloFPIConf. TitlePlayoffNat. Title Michigan 8-212181714%9% ▲ 211% College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings as of Nov. 17. Baylor 8-11022214%16% ▲ 216% Notre Dame 9-1478—a26% ▲ 216% Northwestern 8-22029610%<1% ▲ 21<1% Same old, same old. The college football playoff committee had it easy this week. After a week of games where all their top teams won, they didn’t have to shake things up in their rankings much. The top five remain the same: Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Iowa. After suffering crushing losses last week, Baylor and Stanford fell back in the rankings. Meanwhile, the Sooner state made headway: Oklahoma State and Oklahoma rose up to the No. 6 and No. 7 spots, respectively. But while the Big 12 looks ascendant, they both can’t stay there long: they play each other Thanksgiving weekend.The FiveThirtyEight model has bad news for Notre Dame fans: last week it was Baylor that was projected to elbow out the Irish by season’s end; this week it’s Oklahoma. The model continues to think an undefeated or one-loss Big 12 champion will most likely surpass Notre Dame. Our model simulations — which predict where the committee will land in its final rankings on Dec. 6 — are shown in the following table: Alabama 9-121361%63% ▲ 2119% North Carolina 9-11791536%9% ▲ 211% Clemson 10-013562%68% ▲ 2115% Stanford 8-211111144%11% ▲ 212% Utah 8-213262312%1% ▲ 21<1% Iowa 10-05132928%22% ▲ 212% LSU 7-21524100%<1% ▲ 21<1% Memphis 8-22136430%<1% ▲ 21<1% RankingProbability of … Florida State 8-21419160%<1% ▲ 21<1% Houston 10-019143739%1% ▲ 21<1% Navy 8-116164422%<1% ▲ 21<1% Oklahoma St. 10-0641335%25% ▲ 215% Mississippi 7-3222894%<1% ▲ 21<1% Oklahoma 9-175146%45% ▲ 2118% USC 7-32417734%1% ▲ 21<1% Michigan St. 9-1962211%12% ▲ 211% Ohio State 10-032445%62% ▲ 2118% TCU 9-1181265%5% ▲ 212% Wisconsin 8-22520241%<1% ▲ 21<1% Oklahoma might eventually edge out Notre Dame, but they have two awfully tough games remaining: against TCU this Saturday and on the road versus Oklahoma State. While the Sooners are our favorite for the fourth slot, the model still only gives them a 45 percent chance of making it in.Lurking at the edges are a slew of hopefuls: Oklahoma State and Iowa, though each doesn’t have a loss, stand but a 25 percent and 22 percent chance to make it; one-loss stalwarts Florida, Baylor, and Michigan State — along with two-loss Stanford — all have above a 10 percent shot.For those of you who want more nitty-gritty about our projections, check out our original methodology manifesto, as well as last week’s methodology update.